Makes you wonder whether having a crop forecaster is of value at all. In the case of ABARE it appears it has been used of late as more of a food price inflation fighter by providing inflated production estimates. If Australia cracks 20mmt of wheat this year I'll eat my hat. ABARE appears to be completely ignorant of the frost damage that has occurred in Australia's largest wheat producing State (WA) from Ballidu to Albany ...
-------------------------------------------------------- Winter grain harvest to exceed 30 million tonnes 12/12/2008 8:58:00 PM
The 2008-09 winter grain harvest is still forecast to be much higher than last year's, despite widespread rain throughout November disrupting harvests and resulting in significant volumes of downgraded grain. According to this week’s Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics’ (ABARE) Australian Crop Report, the current winter grain harvest is forecast to reach nearly 31 million tonnes, up 36pc on last year's.
Of this, wheat production is still estimated to be just below 20 million tonnes, despite those harvest headaches caused by the late spring and early summer rain.
While the latest ABARE forecast reflects the good growing seasons across Queensland, northern NSW and WA, it is unable to show the impact of the wet November on grain quality.
It is anticipated that large volumes of downgraded grain will enter the market, and combined with the overall decline in Australian and global grain prices, feed grain prices could fall further.
Between the start of September and the first week of December, indicative prices for feed wheat and feed barley declined 46pc and 32pc, respectively, to their lowest levels since August 2006.
This ABARE harvest forecast for 2008-09 was revised down 6.5 million tonnes from an initial estimate of 37.1 million tonnes in June.
This 18pc reduction in the national forecast was primarily due to another poor spring and widespread crop failures across southern NSW, Victoria and SA.
The 2008-09 winter harvest for Victoria is forecast to be 29pc below 2007-08, at 2.8 million tonnes, while SA production is back 13pc, at 4.3 million tonnes swt.
WA is again expected to deliver the largest state harvest, with production for 2008-09 forecast to reach 11.9 million tonnes – up 34pc on last year.
According to ABARE, the northern cropping region in the state had one of its best years for some time, while across central regions, rain was patchy, but well timed.
In NSW, the very good harvest across northern and central regions of the state offset another failed season in the south, with production forecast at 9.1 million tonnes – up 189pc on last year's.
Reflecting the improved season across the southern region of the state, production in Queensland is tipped to reach its highest level in nine years, at two million tonnes – with Queensland the only state to record an increase in production from the initial forecasts in June (1.8 million tonnes).
