I think Labour will form government because of who the independents are. First the background of each one and my summary below....
I've included what I think is important from the ABC website....
The four MPs are Tasmanian newcomer Andrew Wilkie and rural seat incumbents Rob Oakeshott, Bob Katter and Tony Windsor. Also in the mix is Nationals MP Tony Crook, who wants to be part of the cross-bench negotiations. The major parties will now have to start horse-trading; this is what they have to work with:
Bob Katter Member for Kennedy in outback Queensland since 1993 Was with the National Party until 2001 but left to run as an independent Left the Nationals so he could better represent issues in his electorate Before the election he said he would work with the Greens if there was a hung Parliament Mr Katter says the survival of rural Australia will be his top priority Even though he rejects computers, he has already named broadband as a big issue Has called for more more investment in ethanol He says a privatised NBN will not work, saying "privatised Telstra has been absolutely disastrous for rural Australia"
Tony Windsor Has a farming background and is a primary producer An active participant in innumerable rural and community groups Mr Windsor is the incumbent independent Member for the northern NSW seat of New England A former National Party member Was defeated in a National Party pre-selection ballot in NSW in 1991 Went on to win the election as an independent and remained NSW independent MP until 2001 Held the balance of power with three other independents in NSW Switched to federal politics in 2001, defeating the incumbent Nationals member in New England Won New England on preferences in 2001, increased his primary vote to 57 per cent in 2004 and nearly 62 per cent in 2007 In 2004 Mr Windsor claimed then-deputy PM John Anderson and a Nationals senator bribed him to quit his seat Mr Windsor says he would do a deal with either major party Mr Windsor has named broadband as a key issue
Rob Oakeshott Member for mid-north NSW coast seat of Lyne since 2008 by-election Former National Party member but left the party so he could better represent his electorate Was a NSW Nationals MP until 2008 when he resigned to run for Lyne Before the election he said there was nothing to fear from a hung parliament Mr Oakeshott says he is undecided on who he will side with He names climate change as a top priority He says an emissions trading scheme should be a key policy of any government he will help form He has also called for a fair go for regional and rural Australia
Andrew Wilkie Mr Wilkie is looking set to win safe Labor seat Denison in Hobart Mr Wilkie is a whistle-blowing former intelligence analyst(from memory, he was the whitle blower on Howard on the slush fund to oppose One Nation and Pauline Hanson) He says he will not necessarily fall towards the Greens because of his history with the party He describes himself as centre-based "new breed of political activist" He was a former young Liberal In 2004 Mr Wilkie ran against then-PM John Howard in Bennelong as a Greens candidate Mr Wilkie sees an "stable, competent and ethical government" as important above all else He also sees gaining a fair share of federal road funding for Hobart as a big issue Mr Wilkie has also named one of his main concerns as seeing pensions keep up with the cost of living He wants dental care to be included in Medicare and mental health funding increased Mr Wilkie also wants a better funding model for public education He says what is in the public interest is very important Believes major political parties focus too much in "self-interest" and "party politics"
Other key players There are also two other members in the mix: the Greens' first lower house MP, Adam Bandt, and Nationals MP Tony Crook.
Adam Bandt Mr Bandt has indicated he will side with a Gillard Government He is replacing Labor frontbencher Lindsay Tanner in the seat of Melbourne His work for unions included a stint at Slater and Gordon in a position previously held by Julia Gillard
Tony Crook Mr Crook is set to win the West Australian seat of O'Connor Has toppled Liberal MP Wilson Tuckey Mr Crook is a Nationals MP but has not committed to joining the Coalition He says he wants to be part of the cross-bench negotiations
My Summary... Katter, Windsor, Oakeshott are all ex National Party so not likely to want to work with the coalition, Windsor has stated he will deal with either but remember Katter & Windsor have stated NBN is a major issue. Wilkie was the whistle blower on Howard and stood against him in 2004 and a former Liberal, again, I conclude will not want to work with them now.
Bandt has indicated he will side with Gillard and Crook has stated he is not committed to the Coaltion.
To me this points to Gillard being more able to form Government.........
