Craig Kelly's claim as follows,"... Firstly, the first 20 years...

  1. 478 Posts.
    Craig Kelly's claim as follows,

    "... Firstly, the first 20 years of this century we've had more rainfall in Australia than [over] the first 20 years of the last century."

    "As climate scientists acknowledge, and anyone that can read a graph understands — although there are regional variations, across a [sic] 120 years of data, as Co2 has increased there has been no nationwide drying trend."

    While the average rainfall claim is correct, the error is in the interpretation of the data to support his assertion. Cherry picking if you prefer.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-06/fact-check-craig-kelly-rainfall-drought/12016214

    Data collected by the Bureau of Meteorology shows an increase in Australia's annual average rainfall for the first two decades of this century compared to the years 1900 to 1919.

    However, experts contacted by Fact Check said this was a flawed means of assessing rainfall patterns and drying trends overall in view of Australia's vast landscape and the high variability in rainfall behaviour.

    They said the national average disguised regional differences, which were most starkly felt between the north and the south of the continent.

    On average, northern Australia has become wetter but parts of southern Australia — namely the south-east and south-west — have become much drier in recent decades.


    Experts contacted by Fact Check said that although Australia's average annual rainfall had been increasing — with the last two decades among the wettest on record — relying on this measure alone was problematic.


    Dr Ukkola told Fact Check: "Talking about 'Australian' rainfall is just as useful as talking about European or Asian rainfall."


    "The north/north-west of the country has been getting wetter and drives much of the national increase. But parts of the south-west and south-east have been getting drier, in particular in the cool season …" she said.


    Dr Brown said Mr Kelly's statement did not capture the full story of rainfall and drying trends.

 
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