abn amro bank n.v world agronomy report

http://www.virtualmetals.co.uk/pdf/ABNWAR1210.pdf

Of note:

Fertiliser
Among farming inputs, fertiliser will command the most attention in 2011. Pressure within
China to curb urea and diammonium phosphate (DAP) exports next year will pave the way
for the country to emerge as a net importer of fertiliser within two years. New production
capacity, especially in Morocco from 2013, will help dampen down prices for DAP in the
long-term, but more immediately we anticipate industry prices to rise steadily through
2011. We expect the price of benchmark urea from the Ukrainian port of Yuzhny to
average $355/tonne next year, with several spikes triggered by industry bottlenecks. At the
same time, we see current US farmgate prices for DAP of $660 per short ton jumping to
$780-$800/ton by next December, with monoammonium phosphates (MAP) hitting
$900/ton before the end of 2011. We expect fertiliser prices will rise by between 15%-20%
during 2011 from current levels, and will be set for further advances the following year.

and.....


Dec 1: China imposed a 110% tariff on exports of urea and diammonium phosphate for
the next seven months.