abn amro moves to buy, page-24

I agree with Joel that we're on to a winner.
Here are a couple comments on his analysis.
Rather than P/E use EV/E or similar. As Biota have cash that actually improves the picture.
While GSK have said they'll up production to 190M courses, next years sales figures at best will be 30M (half current 60M) + 85M (1/2 nest years production) = 115M courses

While right now it seems like most of the production will get bought, it is a mistake to assume that. So create a probability distribution for some assumptions, this can be very rough eg,
most optimistic: 115M
mid: 85M
conservative: 60M

The burn rate at Biota has been very consistent and their model means it is likely to be so in the future, though like anyone whose income is increasing there is a tendency to spend more.

So 60M * $1.75 = $105M - expenses - tax = ?

Do that for each one and multiply by a probability and total that up.

Even if the most optimistic outcome is given a 100% weight, Biota won't get close to $280M profit.

Though there is a possible LANI upfront payment which should also be weighted and added in.

If you can't be bothered spending the 10 minutes, or maybe the hour if you've never done it before, to run through an exercise like the above then I'll do it for you and post it on my site in the next few days. Though I encourage everyone to do it.

There are many possible catalysts in the year ahead for Biota on top of fours probably growing royalty cheques. It should be a good year.