The original point of this thread was about TPW's valuation. If...

The original point of this thread was about TPW's valuation.
If I assume TPW:
- can grow revs by 15% YoY in FY18 and FY19 (only achieved 11% in FY17).
- can improve gross margins to 44% (vs 42.6% in FY17, and 41.2% in FY16)
- can reduce delivery costs to 13% of sales (from 15.1% in FY17 and 13.7% in Q4FY17)
- can reduce marketing costs to 10% of sales (their short term target, but well below the 12.5% in FY17 and 11% in Q4FY17)
- can reduce merchants fees to 3% (mid of their target but again well down on FY17); and
- can hold central costs at $12m (the Q4FY17 annualised rate)
THEN
I get an FY19 EBITDA of 3.2m.
Market cap is $43m. I ignore cash on hand as some of it may be burned before they achieve positive operating cash flow, and cash is not much higher than trade payables, so EV is $43m.
So trading on an approx 13x FY2019 EBITDA on some not conservative assumptions. (the implied contribution margin is 18% - the top of TPW's target announced 2017. Maybe they can do better, but not much margin for error ).

By contrast, TME an established, proven, profitable, and still growing online retailer is trading on FY17 EV/EBITDA of about 12x.