TPW 2.39% $9.39 temple & webster group ltd

Just starting looking at TPW. I agree it seems to have done a...

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    Just starting looking at TPW.  I agree it seems to have done a lot quickly to sharpen its business.  one website, lower costs in multiple areas.  They do seem on track for their FY18 targets.  that all seems fine.

    However, one thing I find underwhelming is their revenue growth rate.  Continuing (ie Australian) business revenues grew 11% YoY in FY17.  That's weak, IMHO.  Online growth should be much higher - particularly as furniture etc online penetration is underdone in Aust c/w US and UK (as TPW likes to remind us) and given the online growth rates reported elsewhere.  Now, maybe the getting the business core processes/costs etc had to be a short term priority (for survival/sustainability) and this, together with the website migrations etc, resulted in lower revenue growth in FY17 than might have occurred.  But I still think revenue growth ought to have been better,  And surely the strategic imperative for TYPW is to grow revenue, and scale, and achieve/secure the strongest and largest  market position before the competition gets their act better together.  

    But I don't understand mgmt's presso etc to reflect this imperative.  They want to get cash flow positive etc.  That's a good goal, and maybe they then can  accelerate marketing more aggressively with positive free cash generated from the business.  But in the meantime they seem to be reducing marketing (yes it is more cost effective per new customer), but maybe they create more risks as a result.  Eg, the trend in site visits, per similarweb, is not encouraging, IMHO. https://www.similarweb.com/website/templeandwebster.com.au.  

    Some of the metrics they present suggest positive news here.  Eg, the recent presentation (slide 10) had graph showing 20% increase in active customers and 13% YoY increase in spend per customer.  From these two stats one might have thought revenue growth would be 33% YoY.  Instead they only got 11%.  So, they're a little selective picking the two quarters they do to highlight the growth in those areas.  One risk might be that Q4 was a good quarter, but it may not be representative of the underlying performance.

    I'm not trying to be negative, I quite like the story overall, but the weak revenue growth bothers me. Can someone give me a more positive takeout on the revenue growth outlook.?  (ideally with some facts, rather than just being hopeful!).  Thanks all and GLAH.
 
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