EPS in 1H24 was ~34c and guidance is for underlying EBITDA to be...

EPS in 1H24 was ~34c and guidance is for underlying EBITDA to be 20% higher than 1H, so without being too precise, 2H24 EPS should be at a minimum ~40c

So FY24 EPS is ~74c and the current share price implies a PE multiple of ~18.5 times current year earnings......that seems to be on the low side to me especially taking into account the growth that Jamie has indicated

The market in the short term does not seem to trust that they will hit even the lowered guidance (perhaps the whole issue in the UK is weighing on this along with the fact that is decent part of the increase since 2019 was the high margin crisis projects which analysts may be thinking is not sustainable over the long term)

The EPS of 74c implies a NPAT of ~$108m so even if we shave ~$20m off that (being very conservative of crisis contribution) we arrive at ~$88m NPAT for FY2024 which equates to EPS of ~60c which at the current price implies a PE of ~23 times so perhaps expensive given uncertainty around corporate travel (leisure certainly seems to be holding up, but business travel still uncertain).

Long term (3-5yrs) purchase at these levels will probably earn a decent return, but I can see why the market is a little skittish......perhaps Jamie should be more conservative with expectations/forecasts and then surprise to the upside which the market prefers (but it does appear that he prefers to lead from the front, push hard and that is also why the company is where it is........shareholders from prior to 2019 have not been diluted to buggery unlike other travel stocks).