about the buy-back, page-13

Excellent analysis. This is more or less where I landed with my numbers. Another way to look at this is looking at the historical EBITDA margins to strip out the effect from higher margins from Europe since Covid.
Historically, EBITDA has been between 25 to 35%. Statuary NPAT is generally over 50% of EBITDA but it has been in the late 40s% some times. Lets take 48%. This gives us a NPAT/revenue ratio of 12% that is backed by a proven track record.
Let's assume FY24 revenue is around $720m. This would imply a flat half i.e. same revenue in H2 as H1 so it does seem conservative. Using the earlier NPAT ratio of 12% gives a NPAT figure for FY24 of $86.4m. EPS would be 59cps meaning the stock is currently trading at a PE of 22.7 based on conservative numbers.
The biggest short term headwind is NA margins were a meagre 12%. NA makes up around half the total revenue. Even if other regions get 30% EBITDA margin, at 12% EBITDA margin in NA, the group EBITDA margin is only 21%. So, if current higher than normal EBITDA margin work disappeared and US margins didn't improve, group margins could be 20%.
Running the same calcs as above, a group margin of 20% means NPAT margin of 9 or 10% meaning a 'normalised' EPS of 44c for FY24. This gives the current price a PE of 30. However, at these low assumptions, the business should be able to grow NPAT at mid teens due to revenue growth and margin expansion back to 25% over the mid term from 20% currently so a PE of 30 off this low base NPAT figure isn't very high.

Barring CTD losing market share and losing revenue, I feel CTD is good value right now. If it goes any lower like $12 or $10 it will be a great buy. Unless something comes out the left field I don't think the SP will get that low ($10), even with shorters piling on.