**about to fall off the perch again**, page-9

re: **about to fall off the perch again**(chart) Hi commy,

Good graph but your analysis is too simplistic...it fails to comprehend the reasons for the impressive run up in OXR (i.e. increased reserves and commodity prices) or the acquistion of assets (i.e. 25% increase in Sepon and potential of Prominent Hill) which now lead one to interprete that OXR will not return to the previous long term trend line.

What do I mean by this ?

We would all agree that OXR has been in an Accelerated Growth Phase which means that the price went higher at ever steep angles. In many cases, the trend line followed a curve path rather than a straight line, arcing higher until at last the growth phase exhausted and the rising trend line violated, rendering a Sell signal.

However, in the graph that you provided, you can see that there are actually two growth phases nested side by side with one reacvhing higher than the other. In each case, a substantial decline ensued when the rising trend line was violated BUT, IN NEITHER CASE DID THE PRICE RETURN TO HISTORICAL LOWS.

Price action indicates that a bottom is forming or a high level consolidation is in progress. The time to buy would be after a breakout above 90c