Actual proven sales is not 50M... whilst Management state they expected over 4M pm it seems like they will not be able to pump it out fast enough. I like to base on proven sales... so current sales = 2.8 M pm x12 = 33.6 M pa expected.
Management did state they could achieve 4M pm... I cannot see this is possible on current commodity pricing. This will be a bullish estimate on current throughput.
No doubt as throughput has stablized many have also done the numbers. Risk reward wise we are at good levels. This is why many brokers are stating this is a high value play with money coming in everyday. Growth potential is likely. I like that this play is not solely based on future commodity prices yet equally on company growth.
After Plant complete will affect direct profits near 20% from receiving current Net Profits under 50%. Which is poor. To be closer to 70% in near future. Based on 50% earning = 16.8 Mil and 70% = 23.52 Mil.
Even based on current earnings we are on a very low forward earnings. We have room to move on Current Well to near 40c IMO. Plant completion will give another shot in the arm. Upside with other drills that are more like Development Wells than pure speculation plays. Reminds me of SSN in terms of Development strategy.
Downside is based on hiccups in current production and Oil pricing. As no value being added for Plant completion instantly affecting bottom line and further development.
We are in a better position now than when Mid 50c 1.5 years ago. Not far away from serious production dollars. Whilst would LOVE to have 50Mil earnings... it not happening with current Well alone. Yet great value at current levels as most aspects of this play has not been priced into this Coy IMO.
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