above 45c today?, page-80

No problem Mitta, thanks for asking.

The flip flop of weak price movements at this low volume and low levels means we don’t really have a robust trading environment to judge the underlying demand from the daily. So as indicated in my earlier post conclusions on the daily chart are not particularly reliable. That doesn’t mean you can’t set some sign-posts to guide you as I outlined above and I think it helps to do this to understand the updated action today.

Based on my earlier analysis I did watch the price a bit more than usual today as my take is that those who trade the daily chart such as Funky and other short termers had to sell on the dip below 50% at $0.42. (Correct Funky?). I assume it’s the reason the volume picked up towards the close and so I expect that is really the story of the day. I don’t think there was otherwise much underlying supply or demand from investors.

If it’s the case that it was primarily short-term traders stopping out, that should create a vacuum on the supply side tomorrow morning that brings the price back up a notch or two. We’ll see, but again I don’t want to over-analyse the daily on these volumes and price level.

As to more specific comments on my chart, the qualification remains that we need a trough and more information before anything’s confirmed. However the daily Cycle highlighted is still forming nicely (albeit as qualified still in my earlier post) with 8 days being within a normal orb. 5 days up and three down is still a bullish pattern. Nothing’s changed there.

The potential Pennant pattern is still in place. That orange dotted line under is not a valid trend line, just a working assumption and can be redrawn once the trough is confirmed. I don’t rely on trend lines on the daily, rather it’s there to highlight the pattern forming.

The change from my post yesterday is that $0.42 got tested with the light volume and that took out some short-term traders as noted above. That’s no problem for me.

As stated earlier my primary guide is the weekly chart below and we’ve started the week with a down bar which at this stage looks like a normal one bar counter in an emerging uptrend. Also refer to my monthly chart from three weeks ago (#9503460 of 9/7/13) as this is still relevant.

It’s still early days and of course the price can move against the longs, nothings certain. But so far we’re tracking along nicely, the weekly up-trend is forming in a healthy way, the shorter-termers are getting knocked out which is positive for the stock as it leaves a more stable register, and all-in-all still looking good.

I see you’re still holding Mitta. Although we analyse technical’s in different ways, it appears you agree with my conclusions.