This came from a credit Suisse report today. They are extremely bullish re Boron. The pathway to Net Zero requires thedeployment of a wide range of new climate technologies. The growth in these technologieswill, in turn, be dependent on a wide range of critical minerals and specialty materials.There has been a great deal of focus on modelling the demand for core energy transitionmaterials such as copper, aluminum, lithium, nickel and cobalt. However, there is in fact abroader range of materials with demand exposure to not only the energy transition, but theclimate transition. In this new report series, we expand on the concept of assessing the roleof critical minerals in the energy transition, to outlining a framework for assessinginvestment opportunities under the broader concept of Climate Transition Super Materials.
Boron – the 5th Element of Decarbonisation: Boron is one of the most versatileelements in the world. As a result, it has diversified exposure across several key climatetechnologies. Neodymium ferro boron (NdFeB) permanent magnets will be in high demandfrom Hybrid Electric Vehicles (HEV) and Electric Vehicles (EV). Compared to inductionmotors, permanent magnet motors are smaller and lighter, and have higher efficiency andtorque density. Boron is also used in the chassis, brakes, glass, battery, and airbag of anEV. Boron is critical for insulation materials and therefore plays a vital role in reducingenergy use and carbon emissions in buildings and industry. In agriculture, boron is anessential micronutrient for plant growth. It increases the nutrition and yield of crops, whichsupports sustainable farming and reduces agricultural deforestation and emissions. Inrenewables applications, boron is required in the drive-trains and blades of wind turbines,glass in solar PV module cells, as well as in nuclear reactors and hydrogen fuel cells.
Boron is a high impact, cross cutting super material: We have developed aproprietary Super Materials Demand Model to compare the attractiveness of materials. Thisis made up of two equally weighted components: 1) The Production-Demand Indexcaptures the scale to which production must increase to meet demand from climatetechnologies; and 2) The Technology Concentration Index captures how cross-cuttingin climate technologies the minerals are. Our modelling finds that under a high growthscenario aligned to the IEA’s NZE, demand for boron could be 10x greater than currentlevels by 2050 with, by this time, over 90% of demand coming from climate technologies.Overall, by 2050 cumulative demand for boron under a decarbonizing world could reach54,000 kt under a low growth scenario and 92,100kt under a high growth scenario.
Each step towards Net Zero will see demand for boron outstretch supply. Whileunder the low growth scenario, supply just about meets demand, under the high growthscenario, demand outgrows supply in 2024 and by as much as 30% in 2028. Moreover,the supply of boron is heavily concentrated in two countries and any supply squeeze maybe exacerbated due to long project lead times for new boron mines, which is higher thanthe global average mine. RIO and ORE have boron exposure. RIO has a substantial 480ktpa of production with a potential additional production of 160 ktpa as part of the Jadarproject (B2O3 units). We also identify other uncovered Boron miners within the report.
