CKA 1.30% 7.6¢ cokal limited

Cokal have just announced a PCI project, a smaller project to...

  1. 23,919 Posts.
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    Cokal have just announced a PCI project, a smaller project to kick-start production and self fund the ramp up to 2Mtpa operations at BBM

    The figures and forecasts on this project are outstanding

    They require capex of just US$10-12M. It can be in production within 6-8 months.

    First year costs under the DFS are estimated at $58/t, with the coal expected to fetch a premium to the US$150/t PCI is currently trading at. Production capacity under the smaller project is <500kt p.a


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    The potential cashflows then are 500kt p.a @ $150/t = $75M revenues

    Profit to the project would be around $46M p.a, before paying back project costs, loans etc. Not bad for something capped at a measly $20M

    I briefly spoke to Martino about what sort of JV funding deal they are seeking ... Appears they are currently in negotiations with a party to fund around $8-10M of the project for 50% interest. I consider this is an excellent deal ... Cokal sound like they will attract the majority of the funds required by way of debt funding, whilst only giving away an equity slice in the smaller PCI project, thus retaining the upside and ramp up potential of BBM to ourselves

    The stock was trading last week at an EV of $35M at 3c. Since then, they have removed all debt ($17M worth), announced this PCI project, hinted at imminent JV funding. They are now currently trading with an EV of $20M ... How on earth is cokal possibly worth less after having removing the VA threat and setting a clear path to production ?

    IMO it sounds like the JV funding is all but done, just have to cross the T's and dot the I's. I anticipate this will get released next week sometime

    Appears to me someone is definitely capping the stock. It is worth almost half the EV it was trading at last week ! At least 4-5 times it has tried to break above 3.7c, only to be loaded with huge sells and volume dumped through the spread ... If CKA doesn't get a takeover bid to explain this disgraceful selliing/capping, I will be amazed ...

    IMO we are 80% chance getting a <10c bid, 20% chance of seeing production
    Last edited by vontrader: 05/05/17
 
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