Alan
It was pretty much a guess that commodities would fall.
It seemed impossible that BHP etc would not fall sharply into Oct/Nov and was the only plausible explanation I could think of.
Sorry to hear you have had a set back. I am sure it is just a learning experience for us all, and guess we will have to put off buying that Pacific atol for a while etc.
Don't know whether you have heard of GannGlobal, and I hope I'm not speaking out of turn here, but they seem to have a good handle on commodity trading. They will give you a trial I know.
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