abu fundamentals?, page-4

Hi Early,

I'm not a TA expert, but I have some charting knowledge (I trade on a mix of TA, FA and SA (sentiment analysis), and am a long-term watcher/holder/trader of ABU.

Info from several charting sites is as follows:
AussieBulls: refuses to chart ABU as 'the available data is not able to meet the minimum standards'.

Stoxline - Price and moving averages: 'Price and moving averages has closed below its Short term moving average. Short term moving average is currently below mid-term; AND below long term moving averages. From the relationship between price and moving averages; we can see that: This stock is BEARISH in short-term; and BEARISH in mid-long term.' [NB: of course, TA by nature does not include any knowledge about impending announcements, so this bearish sentiment is only based on past data].

Stoxline - 'Bollinger Bands: ABU.AX has closed above bottom band by 45.9%. Bollinger Bands are 71.7% narrower than normal. The narrow width of the bands suggests low volatility as compared to ABU.AX's normal range. The bands have been in this narrow range for 7 bars. This is a sign that the market may be about to initiate a new trend.' (NB: Stoxline has been saying this for the last week and, interestingly, the low volatility I believe is prescient of the impending ML announcement]

My opinion is that while it looks like ABU bottomed at 0.021 (confirmed by MACD crossover two days ago) it is fully capable of reverting to 0.021 at any time and especially at a whiff of any news that is interpreted by the market as 'bad'. I don't think that ABU will move off the 0.021 - 0.023 range any time soon, unless there is some new 'good' news, not related to the impending ML application, which may give it a short-term nudge in SP and volume for a day or so.

The question posed on another (long) ABU thread was 'Is there any value at 0.021?' and I believe that there is in two different ways: (1) as a medium-term trade (i.e. over the next 2-3 months as it looks likely to either spike with news of the ML approval - if indeed it is approved, which looks likely, followed by a steady climb back into the 0.040 range); and (2) as a long-term (2-5 years) speculative, bulk hold for some much larger gains of above 10 cents and possibly significantly more.

As to the fundamentals, I suggest you contact the company secretary, Jutta Zimmermann (lovely lady) and have a copy of the latest Annual report (for 2013) mailed so you can read it in depth (much easier to peruse in hard-copy than online)and come to your own conclusion about management capabilities, relative size and ambition of exploration leases, and recent activities relating to trial gold production and ML. Finally, in August 2012, ABU won the Best Emerging Company Award at the 20th annual Diggers & Dealers Mining Forum in Kalgoorlie, WA.

Cheers, Blondewolf