ABU SP, page-29

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I have posted caution about ABU's sp for a number of weeks now, despite good announcements from the company and several posters predicting huge sp rises!

With a weak US Gold Price investors aren't looking to buy into Gold stocks until the Gold Price hits bottom and then starts upwards again. The Gold Price chart in $US over the last year looks very poor and is likely to get worse!



If the POG falls below US$1100 then there will be even more carnage for the Gold stocks! Already many billions of dollars of actual, physical cash, or portfolio value, have been wiped from Gold investors, Gold companies and Gold directors, either on portfolio value or through the fire-sales of Gold shares.

Gold sentiment is now very low, even many of the most hardened Gold analysts have turned "bearish" this week.

"Jonathan Barratt, chief investment officer at Ayers Alliance, a longtime gold bug, says he's turned "neutral" on the metal. "As you know I've been a bull, [but] I've got to go neutral now. Gold's broken through some very critical areas. From a technical perspective it doesn't look hot," said Barratt, who expects price could fall back to $1,100 or lower.

Technical analyst Daryl Guppy also warned of  "bearish features" on the gold chart. "There is a higher probability of a future fall below US$1,150 and a continuation of the downtrend towards historical support near $980!"

But just how low will Gold's sp go?

"Wherever you look, there really is no support for the precious metal," said Howie Lee, investment analyst at Phillip Futures, who has been targeting gold to hit $1,100 since the start of the year.

Gold short selling is at record levels, probably the highest levels since at least 1999! When that stops then there should be a rapid rise in the Gold Price.

So ... if the weakness in Gold continues then then there could be many absolutely great Gold bargains around, including ABU. If the already smashed Gold stocks lose another 10% to 20% in price then some may be considered as bargains for profits of 20%+ in the shorter term and 50%+ in the longer term?

So ... do you buy more ABU? Do you buy stocks like NST if it falls another 20% or more? Who knows? It is still a big risk but the rewards could be huge. But over what time frame will the Price of Gold rise again? It could be 10 years or more before Gold passes the US$1500 mark again?

Big decisions to make but I can assure that by far most investors are not buying Gold stocks at the present time and have no intention of buying Gold stocks until this "Gold Bear Run" is well and truly over!

As for me I am now watching and waiting, ABU might fall lower still, but also some other Gold stocks might become more appealing if their sp continues to fall.

DYOR and bloody good luck to anyone brave enough to buy Gold stocks now! ABU at these prices is only a bargain if its sp is going to rise in the future and that is still a guess, a hope, a wish and a prayer!


http://www.cnbc.com/2015/07/20/gold-bulls-in-retreat-after-spectacular-plunge.html

http://www.bulliondesk.com/gold-news/

http://www.marketsandmoney.com.au/why-gold-is-on-the-cusp-of-a-new-bull-market/2015/07/20/

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