I start by saying I am an enthusiastic supporter of TIE, and a substantial holder. In addition, I am heartened by a steadily improving production profile. TIE is definitely moving in the right direction.
However, I think their Production Guidance still leaves a lot to be desired. They constantly overestimate their production, and missing guidance consistently , scares off institutional investors and calls into question their technical competence.
Even recently, since the departure of MS and CW ( and their wildly over optimistic forecasts ) the guidance has been poor.
August 2023 - Diggers and Dealers - H2 2023 - 105-120 Koz at AISC US $875-975 oz Sept 2023- Africa Down Under - H2 2023 - 75-85 K0z at AISC US $1175-1350 oz
Actual Production ; September Q 33753 October 12057
Meaning that to reach even the lower end of the most recent guidance , we need 29190 ozs over November and December. Possible, but unlikely. If TIE are going to convince potential investors of the worth of the company , they have to meet their own , self-imposed , targets. Not wishful thinking. Underpromise and overachieve. Not the reverse.
I suspect that again we will NOT make guidance by end December. After nearly a year since first pour, that is a poor result.
TIE Price at posting:
59.8¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held