Salt, I appreciate the time you have taken to explain the locked up gold situation.
With respect to the forecast you have put together:
On August 4th, ABM issued a presentation confirming guidance for AISC at $750-$870 based off of 150k tonnes. Therefore, in the absence of no further announcement to the contrary, we **should** be able to conclude that the AISC guidance stands as per the August announcement.
With respect to your numbers above, I understand that you have simply taken this quarters forecast outflows and multiplied by 4. If this were to be the case I would see it as a near complete failure of management rather then a good/healthy result.
Your figures: $1600 - $1189 = $411 x 52,331 oz = ~$21.5m
Upper AISC estimate: $1600 - $870 = $730 x 52,331 oz = ~$38m
Lower AISC estimate: $1600 - $750 = $850 x 52,331 oz = ~$44.5m
So if your forecast eventuates management would have miscalculated by around $23m which, IMO would be disastrous!
I am deeply disturbed that management have not clarified the forecast outflows of $15.5m. There should be a lot of granularity with respect to this and the lack of clarity leaves me very suspicious.
I am fine if this is simply a higher number for this quarter due to ramp up but **if** this outflow continues for the full year then I would view this board as untrustworthy.
So, in short, my point is that the locked up gold is only one factor that needed to be clarified. The seemingly huge blowout in outflows is the Elephant in the room until management brings some clarity to the situation.
We shouldn't have to increase production to 225k tonnes in order to hit the $39m profit mark,. This was suppose to be achieved at an output of 150k tonne.
Thank God the AUD is so weak!
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