Interesting comments about Acadia in...

Interesting comments about Acadia in https://seekingalpha.com/article/4578731-acadia-patent-cliff-overshadows-positive-trofinetide-development. Analyst says Trof may be good for Acadia, but expresses concerns about the future of their current main drug.

"To the dismay of shareholders, the company's leading drug, Nuplazid, has failed to expand its indications to cover Alzheimer's disease. In addition, with its annual sales plateauing around $500 million and its composition of matter patent due to expire in 2027, trofinetide's launch in the US market may not substantially influence Acadia's valuation, which already stands at $3.1 billion despite mounting losses."

Upon FDA-approval and first US sales of trofinetide, Acadia will owe Neuren tens of millions of dollars in milestone payments. Furthermore, Acadia will have to ramp-up sales & marketing costs to get trofinetide off to a strong start in the US. Acadia may not profit off trofinetide before Nuplazid loses its battle to generic market entry. Subsequently, Acadia may be wise to raise additional capital soon. This might be at the surprise and expense of its shareholders.Even though trofinetide's assumed approval for Rett Syndrome represents a triumph for Acadia, my personal recommendation for Acadia remains "Sell"."

Its possible in a few years time Trof may be the only thing left generating significant revenues for Acadia. This probably provides substantial incentive for them to spend any $ they make in the meantime on investing in Fragile-X. But it also bolsters the likelihood (in my opinion) that Acadia will become ripe for takeover by Neuren. This would make alot of strategic sense - as it would remove the block to introducing NNZ-2591 to North America for Retts & Fragile-X and thereby increase Neuren's value (NNZ-2591 has longer patent protection than Trof for example).

You might think Neuren at AU$1b market cap couldn't possibly take over Acadia with an AU$4b market cap. But in 6-12 months time I think this comparison could look very different. Note it would make most sense to do any such takeover as a share swap, not cash, and as mentioned previously, this would also be a way to give Neuren a US listing - which is also an obvious pre-requisite to maximising listed value. Neuren is already becoming a big biotech fish in the small Australian pond. On the US market they'll be viewed as having alot more room on the upside.