There's been speculation again about why Acadia's share price...

There's been speculation again about why Acadia's share price continues to languish compared to Neuren. It might be useful to re-read the below I posted a few weeks ago.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4578731-acadia-patent-cliff-overshadows-positive-trofinetide-development.

Analyst says Trof may be good for Acadia, but expresses concerns about the future of their current main drug.

"To the dismay of shareholders, the company's leading drug, Nuplazid, has failed to expand its indications to cover Alzheimer's disease. In addition, with its annual sales plateauing around $500 million and its composition of matter patent due to expire in 2027, trofinetide's launch in the US market may not substantially influence Acadia's valuation, which already stands at $3.1 billion despite mounting losses."

Upon FDA-approval and first US sales of trofinetide, Acadia will owe Neuren tens of millions of dollars in milestone payments. Furthermore, Acadia will have to ramp-up sales & marketing costs to get trofinetide off to a strong start in the US. Acadia may not profit off trofinetide before Nuplazid loses its battle to generic market entry. Subsequently, Acadia may be wise to raise additional capital soon. This might be at the surprise and expense of its shareholders.Even though trofinetide's assumed approval for Rett Syndrome represents a triumph for Acadia, my personal recommendation for Acadia remains "Sell"."


To summarize - the US market has appeared far more focused on Acadia's main drug, Nuplazid, and its failure to gain wider traction, combined with Acadia's looming end of patent-life. The success of Trof perhaps doesn't change the negative view of Nuplazid the market already has. As others have mentioned, perhaps traditional Acadia shareholders just see Trof as a distraction and added expense compared to their 'main' drug Nuplazid.

Of course, I've wondered if Acadia continue to drop in share price would be strategically useful for Neuren. It would be very handy if Neuren could end up in control of Acadia longer term, and then be able to replace Trof with NNZ-2591 for Retts & Fragile-X . That would remove all the potential conflicts of interest re Trof and NNZ-2591 potentially competing in the USA for many indications (not just Retts & Fragile-X). Which as others have pointed out is potentially problematic for Neuren long term.