Acadia, page-479

The results were within guidance. Not bad, not good. The share price reaction - who knows?

Re: Peak sales, here's some good information:

1) A reminder we're only approved in one market (USA) at the moment, with Canada pending. It is the most important market, but Europe is often considered roughly the same value (higher patient numbers but lower sale price on the drug)
2) ACAD notes only 25% penetration of the patient base to date in the USA - plenty more patients in the USA to try the drug
3) Patient numbers have returned to positive trends
4) Persistency seems to be approve clinical trials due to improved GI management strategies
5) The real-world evidence suggests life changing outcomes for patients are still occurring, and this adds to the possibility of parents trying Daybue who are on the fence (it's a small and tight community)

I think this drug can still push towards 800m-1B USD annually in 2-3 years time (EU approval, Japan, Canada, USA).
The low range of the first full year guidance (370m) equates to half a billion in revenue in AUD terms. It's still a lot of money for a single market, single indication, for not our best compound!