Acadia, page-534

Daybue is not the only drug currently disappointing analysts.

Skyclarys, originally developed by Reata and now owned by Biogen, hit the market at the commencement of Q3 last year. At that time, one analyst was predicting US$46m in sales over 2023. Perhaps using DayBue as a new reference for early sales, by the end of 2023, analysts were expecting US$61m-$67m in Skyclarys sales in Q4.

Q4 sales came in at ~US57m, disappointing analysts who said that sales appeared to be slowing and that a poor 25% q on q increase in patient numbers (800-1,000) was on the lower end of expectations.

Biogen got thumped on its Q4 results (not just Skyclarys disappointed the analysts), losing ~US$3.5bn in market cap.

Q1 2024 sales for Skyclarys rose to US$78m. US patient numbers had only increased by 10% in the quarter but several hundred further patients had been added in Europe following approval there. Analysts this time seemed a bit more pleased.

Perhaps both drugs have been victims of Daybue's unanticipated very early sales success, causing very low expectations to veer too high. Thus US$76m quarterly sales for Daybue in the first year of sales is seen as "disappointing" whereas a couple of years ago, EvaluatePharma was predicting just US$57m for the second full year of sales.