Acadia, page-634

Has anyone given a crack at estimating the Daybue revenues for Q2?

Guidance has implied we should see about 15% QoQ growth averaged across these periods. I feel that we'll see a slightly larger increase QoQ compared to Q1 due to it being so weak, and then it averaging out whilst still being fairly backended.

Here's my attempt which is conservative and only reaching the lower end of the guidance.

Q1: 75.9
Q2: 88.0 (+15%)
Q3: 100m (+13.63%)
Q4: 110m (+10%)
Total: $373m USD

This only assumes an average QoQ of 6.5% when you smooth out the bumps. That's still 25% annual growth, though and this is only North America.

I am hopeful for this scenario instead. (Midpoint)

Q1: 75.9
Q2: 91 (+19%)
Q3: 108 (+18%)
Q4: 125 (+15%~)
Total: 400m~ USD

With Canada coming online I suspect a 15% patient growth QoQ should be achievable is long term persistence is improving. That would give a ballpark of 640m USD for 2025 and approaching 1b~ in sales in 2026 with a lower growth rate in North America (5-10%) but new markets (EU) adding with an initial burst of growth, albeit with a lower price of drug (unknown)