Acadia, page-793

I don't know about Acadia, but I believe Neuren will be taken over sometime between the FDA outcome and Xmas, regardless of whether the Angleman results are good tomorrow. It will be sold under one of these scenarios once the pathway of future trials is determined by the FDA meeting:

PM and PH at phase 2 with no competition + Angelman confirming platform status + Undisclosed indications glowing in the background.

PM and PH at phase 2 with no competition + Undisclosed indications lurking in the background

One is certainly more appealing than the other.

The first scenario is Neuren at its zenith. I can't see why the good people at Neuren would continue with so much hard work ahead of them to get where shareholders think an appropriate price is when they can sell for a somewhat similar price and bugger off to the beach for a rest with pockets flush with profit.

I also wonder how Neuren will pay for a Phase 3 trial with (only) A$213 million in the bank. The consensus earlier in the year was that phase 3 was $300 million USD plus. I don't think it is feasible or sensible for Neuren to go this route. What about Pitt Hopkins and its trial? Is that put on hold for a significant amount of time? The share price would get destroyed if they chose to go the phase 3 route and I think long-term holders would sell. Though, nothing I have heard in presentations (apart from some posturing) would suggest a long-term game from here.

We would all love for some of those massive takeover numbers such as 15 billion, I would love a Reata figure over 7 billion, but reality tells me to slice a bit more off that and be content with 4 billion or 45 AUD for a share, not far off the much talked about $50. Feels deflating but if you asked me yesterday before the trading halt I might just have said yes. In the future, I would rather have the preferable Daybue situation of being surprised by a figure than being disappointed by one.

Tony B won't agree and I am sure a few others won't either and that is cool, but I think the time is nearly upon us to sell up even if it is slightly disappointing.