ACCC NBN market metrics boding well for Aussie Broadband

Hi all,

I wanted to share an observation for anyone questioning Aussie Broadband's outlook. I just took a moment to look at the last few NBN Wholesale Market Indicators Report's released by the ACCC (in fact we're due another report any day now). It shows prominently the top four ISP's ordered by number of NBN connections, which include Telstra, TPG, Optus and Vocus. Aussie is the 5th largest as most would know.

The growth rate for the top four ISP's has been curbing for some time, not just as a percentage, but in new connections per quarter. Aussie Broadband's growth rate (new connections per quarter) has continued to climb however, even now that the NBN rollout has completed. I project Aussie will match match or overtake Vocus by years end with regards to number of NBN connections, displacing Vocus on the market indicator report webpage. So that's quite a promising metric.

Another promising metric is the proportion of 250mbps and 1000mbps connections Aussie Broadband has. They have almost half the total number of 1000mbps connections. What this tells me, and which is no surprise, is that Aussie Broadband appeals to power users, which are typically IT enthusiasts, a decent percentage of which would be IT professionals who work in the IT industry and may be making or influencing infrastructure decisions. These are also the people that friends and family typically turn to for ISP recommendations. So I am not surprised to see the natural growth exceeding that of the larger incumbents.

Anyway, I'm still rather bullish on Aussie, and it helps remind me why I didn't sell at the $6 highs because to me, that seems like fair value factoring in their accelerating growth despite the NBN rollout completing.

This is all clearly my opinion and observations, take it as you wish.