Hey Zippo
AGW is the driver (pardon the pun), but EVs are the means to facilitate the grid transition, both through allowing load balancing (i.e. charge cars during times of excess electricity production, be it from idling coal power stations during the night or from solar PV and wind systems during peak renewable energy production) and later on by feeding electricity back to the grid (V2G) when required.
You are of course keeping in mind that in 2019 a grand total of 6,718 EVs were sold in Australia, representing less than 0.6% of new car sales (
https://electricvehiclecouncil.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/EVC-State-of-EVs-2020-report.pdf)?
Even if my wildest expectations for EV uptake were beaten, it would be a while before EVs will create any serious problems for the grid.... unless you played silly buggers and did nothing to plan for the EV future of course.... a game Australia has been playing for the last 20 years.
Perhaps you did not read the interim Origin Energy report on smart charging that I referenced in one of my above posts... one of the "surprising" (nah, not really) things out of the study was that rather than charging mostly during off-peak periods at night, EVs often were being charged during the day. The following is the relevant chart from the study:
Unfortunately, this data set is very limited and taken during the pandemic, so I am not putting much significance on it. However, it does appear to highlight that many EV drivers use their rooftop solar systems to charge their vehicles rather than charging from the grid.
You might also have read about rather Pythonesque situation where power companies get to turn off domestic rooftop solar systems if these systems generate excess electricity during certain times of peak wind/sunshine, so as to not cause blackouts (
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-06-19/solar-boom-puts-sa-at-risk-of-another-statewide-blackout/12372558)?
As an aside, I find this absolutely scandalous... power companies basically get to switch off their competition and are rewarded for not investing in grid infrastructure that allows larger percentage of renewable energy to be used.
Well, EVs could easily absorb that electricity rather than literally wasting it. I expect to see EV batteries to be employed as virtual power stations that can feed back into the grid during times when other forms of generation are not sufficient to satisfy demand.
The technology for doing such things exists, but in order to empty it into operation on a large scale, it needs to be tested.
I was once told by one of my colleagues the saying "Your lack of planning is not my emergency".
Electricity companies could see these changes coming 20 years ago. I would not reward them for their inaction and lack of planning.
