Here is what I wrote earlier with regard to the 2-4 year timeframe:
So, in my opinion, the next 2-4 years are going to see the above issues coming to the front of mind and the death spiral of the ICE era will accelerate suddenly and viciously. Over roughly the same time frame, EVs are likely to reach price parity with ICE cars at time of purchase. So any vehicle purchase beyond this time frame will mean that an ICE buyer will want to spend more money on their ICE car than for a comparable EV vehicle, so they can spend more money on fuel and maintenance for the rest of the ICE car's life only to drive 1,000km and refuel in 2 milliseconds...
The main point is that I expect EVs to reach price parity to ICE cars over the next 2-4 years.
Note, that this is what will happen at a global level.
The immediate effect this will likely have is a sudden drop in demand for new ICE vehicles, as (on average) more people defer their car purchase waiting for an EV that suits their particulate performance criteria.
Here in Australia, the actual uptake of EVs could be further delayed by lack of charging infrastructure and a general lack of policy framework that actually tries to encourage the switch.
However, while the rest of the world is charging ahead (see Norway, China, USA, etc), the Australian consumer will have to buy an ICE car worrying about the longevity of the car manufacturer and their ability to supply the parts aftermarket for the next couple fo decades and wonder about future petrol prices as producers see their markets collapse and environmental restrictions on toxic air particulates and CO2 emissions are tightened.
I suspect when those thought processes dawn upon people, people will start asking what our federal government has done to prepare for this inevitable transition... given the proximity in time to the COVID pandemic, the federal government might very well be viewed as once again not having taken responsibility and planned appropriately.
I will try to dig up some research about when a strong EV uptake might become an issue for the grid here in Australia. Given that Australia has the benefit of seeing what problems are emerging overseas, where EV uptake is much further advanced compared to here, and how far behind we are in terms of EV adoption, we really have no excuse not to have our grid EV ready... but then again, Norway has started planning for the transition since the early 1990's...
