I am fairly sure that the onset of autonomous driving is imminent - i.e. a time scale of 2-3 rather than 5 to 10 years before wide implementation.
I note that in San Francisco, Waymo and GM's Cruise are now free to operate an unlimited number of robotaxis 24/7:
https://www.wired.com/story/robotaxis-cruise-waymo-san-francisco/
For those who have been following Tesla's progress towards autonomous driving, the following article suggests that Tesla is also making moves that will see it get significantly closer to moving its Full Self Driving out of beta (said to happen with version 12. of its FSD software):
https://techau.com.au/elon-says-fsd-v12-is-almost-a-total-rewrite-in-testing-by-qa-drivers/
I know all the counter arguments about Elon overpromising and the technology being neither safe nor ready. However, besides both concerns about cost of oil and environmental degradation, there is a HUGE economic imperative to move to autonomous transportation ASAP.
Tesla recently started advertising for test driver positions of its FSD technology, like for this one in Victoria:
https://www.tesla.com/en_AU/careers/search/job/vehicle-operator-test-driver--202573
The United Arab Emirates has provided China's WeRide a nation wide autonomous driving license:
https://techcrunch.com/2023/07/04/chinas-weride-secures-self-driving-vehicle-license-from-uae/
I have said it before, autonomous driving technology will have massive repercussions throughout the global economy, yet very little attention is being pad to this. I once had a chat with someone from the Electrical Vehicle Council and they wee not interested at all in this, saying their focus is purely on facilitating rapid EV uptake.
I recall a figure that about 20% of the European economy is either directly or indirectly connected to the automobile & transport industries. Autonomous driving will massively disrupt these industries and it is not 10 years away (I think).
At the end of the Wired article referenced at the top, Cruisae CEO Kyle Vogt is quoted this:
".... Cruise CEO Kyle Vogt said it wasn’t too soon to think about what might happen to the jobs of today’s professional drivers, some of whom asked the CPUC to block robotaxi expansion during comments before the vote. Vogt said Cruise has a responsibility to warn government and regulators that its technology is set to disrupt the lives of people who make a living behind the wheel. But he said Cruise wasn’t the only one. “Some of that’s beyond the reach of any one individual company,” he said.
I CONCUR!!!
Autonomous driving will be a significant step towards accelerating the transition to sustainable transportation.
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