Accelerate the World's Transition to Sustainable Energy - to fight Anthropogenic Climate Change, 69702671, page-20229 - HotCopper | ASX Share Prices, Stock Market & Share Trading Forum

Originally posted by MrFrankWhite: ↑

Correction to my last meant to say its triggered an explanation response on the transparency review.

https://www.aer.gov.au/communication/aer-completes-transparency-review-of-aemo-2023-inputs-assumptions-and-scenarios-report#:~:text=Transparency%20in%20understanding%20AEMO's%20approach,2024%20ISP%20in%20December%202023.

However, the report identifies some inputs and assumptions that should be explained to further support and strengthen stakeholder understanding of key inputs and assumptions in the 2024 ISP. AEMO must provide further explanation on these issues as an addendum to the IASR and consult on these issues in the draft 2024 ISP.

And the it points out the trainwrecks..

When compared with 2021 IASR scenarios,AEMO has not clearly explained why there is lessevidence of widespread electrification andtherefore how this slower investment inelectrification has been reflected in the updatedforecasts. We observe that since the 2023 IASRwas published that the Victorian Government hasannounced a ban on gas connections to newresidential and government buildings from 1January 2024 and expect the impact of this policywill be included in the draft ISP.
....
However, there is noexample given for how electrification may affectshoulder periods including Autumn and Spring.We expect to AEMO explain why these periodsdo not need to be discussed.
....
AEMO has not explained from where it will sourceconsumer risk preferences or provided further6 AEMO, ISP Methodology, June 2023, p. 100.7 AEMO, 2023 Inputs Assumptions and Scenarios Report, July2023, p. 32.detail on how it will consider consumer riskpreferences in selecting an ODP
...
We consider that as AEMO has assumed in otherparts of the IASR that hydrogen is going to be awidely used fuel source, its price should bemodelled in this section alongside other fuelsources.
...
Further, there is little detail discussing theassumptions regarding which power systemsecurity services will come online and when.Rather AEMO only states that they expect a mixof technologies to be delivered

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What is your point?

I am not saying that AEMO is perfect. In an ideal world, AEMO ought to have - not rung alarm bells, but - started a riot 30 years ago to highlight the importance of planning for the impending and inevitable energy transition. However, given that AEMO is a slave to its political masters, there is probably only so much it can do.

As for The Australian Energy Regulator (AER) pointing out any shortcomings of the work undertaken by AEMO: I consider that the AER's role and merely how the system ought to work.

Don't you?!?

Given the severity of the shortcomings, perhaps leadership changes at AEMO might be in order. I do not pretend to have the qualifications nor understanding to be able to make that kind of a call. Ignoring AEMO's advice or abolishing AEMO are not viable options, imho.

However, AEMO is our market operator. If it is not delivering, we must fix it, keeping in mind that it is a slave to our political masters. Government sets targets and AEMO needs to ensure that it reports on any current and future operational problems it can identify where capacity does not meet stated targets.

Given the vital importance of energy markets, I am all for more detailed disclosure by AEMO, so that its work can be scrutinised and criticised by independent people with better understanding of energy markets than myself.