I’m only looking at the fact that ultimately oil will run short enough in supply (probably in or around ten years from now) that its cost will push some users into other forms of propulsion.
The various Energy Agencies around the world have oil sitting at 36 or 37 years supply (for known reserves) at 2019’s consumption rate.
Given that the first 33.3% of an oil field’s flow is vastly different to the second 33.3% flow rate and the last 33.3% is sometimes debatable on access and flow rates...... the 36 years supply might easily take +-70 or more years to economically access only two thirds of it, with costs greatly different to today’s formula.
Coal to liquids is another option for extending ICE utilisation.
The point I was making is that EV’s are here, so too ICE.
ICE are far more competitive on cost and will most likely remain that way until competition for oil supplies is pushed by rapidly dropping supply.
Just remember, the MMCC lemmings are doing their best to try and stop the development of existing discovered oil fields, continued development of producing oil fields and curtailment of further assessment of discovered oil fields.
If they are successful in reducing activity for as little as half a decade, Drilling Contractors, their multi-decade accumulation of drilling skills and know how will be greatly reduced or completely wiped out. And that doesn’t consider the destruction of the drilling infrastructure, facilities and equipment via insolvency and scrapping.
To recreate an oil drilling industry would take $Billions that nobody would be willing to risk with vacillating Governments.
I am in no way pushing EV’s over ICE. However, the reality is that the current dominant forces in the world are like headless chooks.
None of them have even a tenth of the intellect of the cartoon character “Foghorn Leghorn”.
