310....Have you actually read the article or did you merely post...

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    310....

    Have you actually read the article or did you merely post it for the headline statement that it offers?

    Having read and pondered the article, what strikes me are the following:

    1.) A drop in EV sales due to a reduction or phasing out of subsidies.... surprise surprise!!! The same has been previously observed in the USA and China - indeed almost anywhere - where EV subsidies have been pulled back. Looking at all the other instances, where this has occurred, demand typically jumped back once this "shock" had been absorbed.

    For German auto-manufacturers to adjust their long-term strategic planning based on this short-term blip in demand is - in Sir Humphrey Appleby's words - "courageous!"

    2.). To call for flexible production lines - i.e. allowing for ICE, EV, hybrid and hydrogen vehicle production capability?!? Seriously?!? Blind Freddy can see that that will spell eventual ruin for the business. The infrastructure investment required to maintain competitive production lines in all of these propulsion systems would be enormous. I think, even if cost of capital was zero - which it is not! - this reeks of strategic ineptitude. Time will tell!!!

    3.). The comment that the high-end EV market is saturated, but there is not enough on offer below the Euro 25,000 level - rather than an excuse for not pushing out new high-end models - ought to be an incentive to manufacture cheaper EVs, for which demand is huge. I would go as fas as to predict that the future of EV lies in the sub Euro 25,000 market segment.

    4.). As for the red herring topic of charging infrastructure, I personally believe it is a near non-issue. OK, if Germany has a target of 1 million charging stations and by 2024 only 105,000 have been rolled out, they are behind their target. However, I suspect that much of the initial delay arises from red tape and delays in getting approvals for new sites. Once the process is started and projects enter the pipeline and initial bottlenecks in the planning process have been identified, I would expect the roll-out to naturally accelerate.

    I find the comment attributed to Zipse “Do you think regions like Southern Italy will have charging stations in every village within twelve years?” nothing short of laughable. If a major German legacy car manufacturer in 2024 seriously believes that the transition to EV technology will be hampered by the lack of charging infrastructure in regions like Southern Italy... seriously?!? Here is a map of only the Tesla charge points already operational today:

    https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/5935/5935930-e774d679c9a290720b9ab166db870590.jpg

    In addition, every residence with power supply is capable of charging an EV. Red dots represent superchargers.

    5.). In terms of what I consider to be a more pertinent indicator of where the EV market is heading, I note the following comments in the article:

    The coalition must meet its goal of getting 15 million EVs on the road by 2030, or face missing emissions targets. As of November, only about 1 million — or 2% of all cars — on German roads were fully electric. Without further subsidies, some analysts think hitting the 2030 target will be a challenge.

    By sitting on the fence and hedging their bets, German legacy car manufacturers are going to re-live their very own version of the slow motion Kodak moment train wreck. If they can not deliver the sub Euro 25,000 EV - FAST - others will!!!

    Tesla's Cybertruck vanity project has provided European EV manufacturers with a very small window of opportunity to focus on the sub Euro 25,000 EV while Tesla was distracted. I don't believe Chinese EV manufacturers engage in the same kind of hubris.

    To get to 15 million EVs onto the road by 2030, the transition to EVs needs to accelerate. This is not going to happen at the high end of the market. However, if German legacy car manufacturers can not provide the low-cost mass market EV real fast, this article will read like the German legacy car manufacturers' obituary in just a few years from now.

    imho
 
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