"Just pointing out how easy it is to suggest that need to ban sales of ICE vehicles but the reality of the availability of EV’s to replace them is woefully inadequate."
I am just a messenger. I have little influence on various nation states banning ICE vehicles. However, I do understand that that decision is made on the basis of those nation states taking man made global warming seriously. Understanding the threat this presents, they have decided to take the ambitious action of banning ICE cars.
In other words, I assume that they take the potential damage arising from man made climate change as being significantly higher than the economic damage that might arise if not enough EVs can be manufactured to replace the banned ICE vehicles in time.
Do note, that they are not banning them from 2021, but rather 2025 (in the case of Norway), 2030 (in the case of the UK) and various later dates... Remember Norway started planning for this transition since 1990. As with any difficult project, the earlier you begin planning, the less painful it will be to complete your work.
When you hear me refer to the "EV revolution", I use those words - not only due to my enthusiasm for EVs - but because I also know that this transition/revolution will be messy and cause a good deal of heartache, pain, and dislocation.
Finally, I actually believe that in future a large part of this thread will discuss the transition to autonomous driving. I do not believe that there will be a 1:1 replacement of ICE cars with EVs. With the onset of autonomous driving, I expect the global vehicle pool to shrink by 80% to 90% over time. It might be 3-5 years, before this will become a hot topic, but I am pretty sure it will not be 8-10 years before we get there.
"Yes, production numbers will increase in time won’t they?"
Well, I do not know. Without the advent of autonomous driving, there is a good chance that "the World" might not be able to completely replace ICE production with EVs by 2030... maybe it will.
Respected industry expert Roskill has done an analysis just for Western Europe, where rather than considering EVs as a starting point, they look at CO2 emission targets as a starting point (as this is the real driver for this transition, even if many here on HC do not want to face this fact). They then worked out that to reach Europe's CO2 emission target, Western Europe needs to produce 11.5 million EVs by 2030 (above the 9 million target set by not considering the CO2 reduction target). This would imply that 80% of all new cars sold in Western Europe are EVs.
As of today, it is near impossible to say wether or not all targets will be met. However, the nations that have committed to this transition and these targets, will aim to work towards them. By having ambitious targets, the world will be in a better position to tackle the path forward than if we did nothing (or worse, if we started whining about what China and India are doing).
"Economies of scale will reduce costs?"
Yes, of that I am certain
This is the historic price drop of batteries:
You can haggle over wether or not prices will drop by 19% or 14% for every doubling in EV production - i.e. the degree of the price reductions - but I would call it a certainty. Do you doubt this?
"Advances in battery technology will increase ranges and decrease charge times?"
They most certainly will. There following chart shows how the range of EVs has increased between models:
Unfortunately, the chart does not provide a year of release for each vehicle, but I suggest that the models on the right hand side are approximately in chronologic order (though some models are not even aiming to increase range, as this is not required for all market niches).
You would also be aware that companies are racing to release ever faster charging stations and design their EV batteries to be able to accept ever faster charge rates. There fastest charge rate I have observed was over 800km/hr.
"But that isn’t fixed in stone because these things haven’t been invented yet."
The transition is legislated - not fixed in stone... in a number of jurisdictions. If you ask me, the momentum is growing rather than slowing, for more and more nations/states to set targets for the transition.
The EVs that are available today, already satisfy the needs of a large portion of the ICE driving population, so for the next few years, I would argue that even without additional models than what has already been announced (including for example the F-150 Lighting and Mustang Mach-E), the EVs for the start of the transition already exist.
You will be surprised how quickly additional models are going to come to market to satisfied the needs of all the different niche markets that currently exist for ICE cars.
In terms of new capital investment into a new technology, I personally cannot think of any technology or industry transformation in the history of mankind, that will see larger amounts of money invested, than into this transition.
I wonder, what investment opportunities this will throw up over the coming years...
