Hey Zippo
No, I have not looked at this before, but you are right, it might yield some interesting insights.
First article I stumbled across was the following:
https://energypolicy.columbia.edu/sites/default/files/file-uploads/EV_ChargingChina-CGEP_Report_Final.pdfOne section of the report was funny. On page 11, it talks about EV penetration projections, which I detail below:
Electric Vehicle Deployment Projections
Forecasts of EV deployment vary widely.
Some recent examples include:
● The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) forecasts that 11.6% of passenger cars worldwide will be EVs by 2040.11
● The International Energy Agency’s 2017 World Energy Outlook projects 280 million EVs on the road by 2040, which would represent 14% of the global fleet of roughly 2 billion vehicles at that time.12 The IEA’s 2018 Global EV Outlook projects 125 million EVs on ENERGYPOLICY.COLUMBIA.EDU | FEBRUARY 2019 | 11 ELECTRIC VEHICLE CHARGING IN CHINA AND THE UNITED STATES the road by 2030 under the IEA’s New Policies Scenario (representing 6% of the global light-duty vehicle stock).13
● BP’s “Evolving Transition” scenario suggests that 15% of vehicles will be EVs by 2040, but 30% of vehicle miles traveled will be powered by electricity.14
● Morgan Stanley forecasts that EVs will represent around 25% of global vehicle stock by 2040 and surpass 55% of vehicle stock by 2050.15
● In its 2018 EV Outlook, Bloomberg New Energy Finance projects that 55% of new car sales and 33% of the world’s vehicle fleet will be EVs by 2040.16
● A “fast adoption” scenario set forth in one International Monetary Fund working paper suggests 90% penetration by 2042.17
● The analysts at RethinkX, a consulting firm working on disruptive technology, project that transport-as-a-service and autonomous vehicle technology will enable EVs to replace virtually all privately owned and commercial vehicles as early as 2030.18 In contrast, a 2016 Mckinsey study projects a 15% market share for autonomous vehicles and less than 10% for shared vehicles (autonomous or not).19
The wide range of forecasts reflects different assumptions concerning battery costs, public policies and the impacts of mobility-as-a-service and vehicle autonomy, among other factors.
EV deployment rates in China will be strongly affected by government targets. The Chinese government new energy vehicle targets currently include sales of 2 million per year by 2020 and 20% of total vehicle production and sales—or over 7 million vehicles annually—by 2025.20. According to a technology road map of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT), EVs could reach 40% of new vehicle sales in China by 2030.21 The projections in other studies vary:
● A 2017 Tsinghua University study estimated EVs would account for 7% of vehicle sales in Beijing in 2030 without policy supports or technology breakthroughs and over 70% of sales and half the vehicle stock with aggressive policy support and technology progress.22
● Bloomberg New Energy Finance forecasts EVs to reach 10% of Chinese new vehicle sales by 2025 and surpass 50% by 2035.23
● The World Wildlife Fund expects China to reach over 90% of EV sales within 10–20 years.24
Forecasts of EV penetration in the US market vary:25
● In the US Energy Information Administration’s 2018 “Reference Case,” EVs reach 7% of new vehicle sales in 2025 and 19% in 2050.26
● The consultancy Energy Innovation estimates that EV sales will reach 10% of new US vehicle sales soon after 2025, 20% around 2030 and 65% by 2050.27
● Bloomberg New Energy Finance forecasts that EVs will reach 10% of new US vehicle sales by 2025 and 50% by 2035.28The reason I find the above amusing is the massive range of forecasts from OPEC seeing only 11.4% EV market share for passenger cars by 2040(!) to the IMF expecting 90% penetration by 2042 (not to mention the Rethink.X 2030 forecast that see autonomous EVs replace virtually all ICE cars by 2030.
The range in forecasts for China is equally wide.
Not surprising that our expectations differ widely, when even the "experts" can not work it out...
... and yet, this is such a momentous change with massive ripple on effects for the global economy and technological leaderships for the next couple of decades (
https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/gm-boosts-spending-electric-vehicles-add-two-new-us-battery-plants-2021-06-16/).
Time will tell!
