Nice looking calcs there trader, however I feel they're a bit higher than what we will be looking at over 2012, due to the assumption of 'one net well drilled and on production every 3 months'.
I Counted 46.5 gross Sugarloaf wells from AUT's released (and revised) drilling program. At 6.25% WI, that equates to 2.9 Net S/Loaf wells (before royalties). Hence 1 net well per 3 months (4 net wells per year) could be 33% too great for your 2012 (drilled and fracced) well figure.
Your (existing well) figure seems perfect to me. I calculated 250 boe/d (Net of Royalties) as a good figure to use, and 120,960 boe suggests 248 boe/d (Net of Royalties), which seem to line-up perfectly!
Your (2012 well production) figure of 450,240, reduced by approximately 33% = 300,000 boe.
Which provides a 2012 Average production (attributable to EKA) of 950 boe/d Net of Royalties.
And a 2012 exit production rate of about 1500 boe/d (net of royalties).
That to me gives a figure of about $29.5 million in revenue for the 2012 calendar year, which will be very heavily weighted in the 2nd, 3rd and 4th quarters (as January drilled wells will come online to production in early March, or there abouts).
Likewise, these figures are only based on the S/Loaf (and Blackjack Springs 1, however this one lone 9.4% well contributes very little in the scheme of things for EKA's existing production).
EKA Price at posting:
23.0¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
