Acceptable risk

I started writing a question about acceptable risk but then I realised there's so many rampers/downrampers and agendas on here I doubt I would get the response I was looking for and what am I looking for really ? A sounding board to validate my own estimates ? I think what's interesting is that brokers and individuals put up their SP estimates but you never see much in the way of risk assessments perhaps because of the number of unknowns. This is what I started to write-


I've learnt the hard way that spec stocks carry with them a lot of risk. You can due all the research possible and dissect every announcement/release/annual/quarterly but at the end of the day there is still an inherent element of risk. I'd like to think I'm investing but when there are so many unknowns in the spec end of town I know I am really speculating and trying to even the odds in my favour by following the money and looking for the best risk/reward options.

Now It's been discussed that a bad DD result would be anything under 10%grc so having said all that I would like to ask (out of morbid curiosity really) what chance you realistically assign the DD results being a dud and the SP declining.

A percent number answer only.