Damo, good post but here’s a bit of analysis on the actual quarterly results and some of my observations….
Column 1 Column 2 Column 3 Column 4 0 1 2 Opening Cash 3 Exploration and Development 4 Development 5 Production 6 Admin 7 Interest Received 8 Other 9 Total Cash Outflow 10 Closing Cash 11 Production (lb) 12 AGS 25% Share of Production Cost / lb 13 Total Production Cost / lb
IMO, the quarterly accounts are not portraying the whole picture. The actual cash position is overstated because the production costs seem way too low for the quarter (on a cash basis). Although we only produced 409,555 lb or 54% of forecast, actual production expenses are only 5% of forecast.
However, there is no revenue forecast for the coming quarter? Only cash outflows. That seems a bit bizarre. Are we just stockpiling and not actually selling any yellowcake?
I have estimated production for the next quarter at 704,022 lb by extrapolating June volumes (i.e. 234,674 lb *3 ). Not sure how accurate this is, but in the absence of a volume forecast I had to assume something conservative.
Now, this will give us a combined actual/forecast production volume of 1,113,577 lb at a cost of $6.795m or $6.10/lb for the 6 months from April 2014 – Sept 2014. This equates to $24.40 per pound for the JV – which is well below what we were told in the revised start up plan issued in January 2014 (approx. $40.13/lb).
IMO, either the production costs are not as high as they are said to be, or they are not being accurately reported in the Quarterly Report.
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