I don't neccessarily agree this is the case with OBJ, however with regards to most other Australian biotech company's in the area of drug discovery and development I might tend to agree...
Take into account the 90% of all new drug compounds that fail in clinical trials and then also consider the 30% FDA rejection rate from that remaining 10%
The chance of a new clinical compound being approved to market is exceptionally low.
From this remaining 6.6% approval opportunity, if the Australian biotech is fortunate enough to attract a US based pharmaceutical company as a sponsor, statistics as provided by the FDA show a US based "*Big Pharma" sponsor offers a 64% chance of approval whilst a *Mid sized" US based sponsor would provide a 40% chance of approval from that remaining 6.6%.
What chance does this leave for our small hopeful Australian biotechs who are still without any sponsor for new drug developments?
Imho, I believe PRR's cVac probably stands at being one of Australia's most promising hopes in this non-sponsored <1% catergory out of the hundreds of other promising developments in Australia, however if my assumption for cVac proves to be correct, and based on statistics, we can certainly write off almost every other development, and hence, this is where your comment would certainly apply to those other company's...
"all that is keeping it alive is hope of a deal"
This one fact alone only exposes two possible scenarios imo:
1). OBJ is heavily under-valued compared to most Australian listed biotech stocks, or 2). Most Australian listed biotech stocks are heavily over-valued compared to OBJ
What do you think the approval percentage rate is for FDA compounds which are already approved to be delivered via a new painless and more effective method of delivery?
FDA's major focus on drug delivery today is all about patient compliance. Reducing pain at point of administration is now absolutely vital for gaining regulatory approval.
We can also discuss solutions to the patent cliff of already existing blockbuster drugs coming off protection or the fact that OBJ's technology can deliver the same efficacy results with an API loading capacity of 100x less than that which is required with a syringe?
Do you think any Pharmaceutical company's might be interested in a 100 times lower cost proposition... I have no doubt that if they were interested they would certainly want to keep it confidential. ___
* US Big Pharma = MC of +$5b * US Mid size Pharma = MC of +$1b
OBJ Price at posting:
2.2¢ Sentiment: LT Buy Disclosure: Held
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