accumulate to dividend, page-8

Entry Price - $1.80 for me (not 50c DDzzzzzzzzzzz)
JORC will conclude in the amount of Potash in the ground (tested ground which is open in all directions!) not the 300mt of dirt with %KCI 23% - whats the point in quoting dirt?

My logic below seems sound:
- Potash best commodity to be in for 2011
- ELM about to post a large JORC find (backed up by DD)
- Postive high grade shallow mineraliation results
- Nextdoor neighbour MagIndustries has "best underdeveloped Potash deposit in the world" soon to be pipped by a long way
-Life of mine calc includes 300mt of Potash (not 300mt of dirt at 23% = 60mt potash) I can understand recovery on the 300mt @ 95% = 285mt / 8m annual capacity = 35yrs LOM.

If my logic is incorrect anywhere here would appreciate a comment otherwise might sell out tommorow at 2.47.

My prior posts:

Potash looking good!
Macro
- Potash commodity pick of 2011 and going forward / Safe due to consumer staple nature of Potash "we all need to eat boom/bust times"
- Resources Grab frenzy in multi-decade multi-commodity boom (driven by emerging markets)
- Obvious Corporate interest from BHP(recent attempt), RIO (Albanese looking) Vale
- RIO ventured into Mozambique (Rivers bid) showing their appetite for Tier 1 assets in emerging (African) nations.

I have been on the hunt for Potash companies (RWD, STB etc.) and this one looks to be setting up nicely:
- DD headline NEXT BIGGEST POTASH FIND
- Proven management (UraMin) plus management involved in broking houses
- High grades at shallow levels through recent newsflow confirming older drilling
- Postive Mining/Business Posture from Congo (safer than Eritrea?)
- Open in all directions with next drilling phase announced which will supplement maiden JORC resource.

I think we have a monster (Tier 1 *LONG LIFE LOW COST PRECIOUS COMMODITY*)on our hands.

Taken position a few weeks ago at $1.80 - looking forward to maiden JORC and beyond....

This sleeping giant is about to RISE

I have taken a strong position before all those who will wait post-JORC = "non-believers/risk averse types who want to invest in a sure thing" (surely the SHALLOW HIGH GRADE STRONG CORRELATION TO HISTORICAL RESULTS nature of the announcements thus far are stepping stones to the MAGIC 300mt+ zone?)
Postive Drilling = Positive JORC

What CAN go wrong?

http://www.magindustries.com/innerpage.aspx?pageid=125

MAG has a tenement nextdoor to ELM that is apparently
?the best undeveloped potash project in the world"

http://www.miningweekly.com/article/magindustries-in-talks-with-several-potential-backers-2011-03-25

ELM has announced KCI of 22-40% whilst MAG stated 17.3% with below 200mt proven.
If ELM comes out with 300mt+ JORC then its going to dwarf MAG's so called ?the best undeveloped potash project in the world"

Glad I am in before the rest of Europe and the Americas wake to it!!! Bring on $10!!!

In June 2009, a National Instrument 43-101 compliant technical report estimated proven and probable reserves of 33.2 million tonnes of potash which can support a reserve life of more than fifty-four years at a projected production rate of 600,000 tonnes per year. The 2009 Technical Report estimated proven reserves of 151.2 million tonnes of carnallitite, at a carnallite grade of 64.4% of ore and a KCl grade of 17.3% of ore, concluding with proven reserves of 26.1 million tonnes of KCl. The 2009 Technical Report further estimates probable reserves of 40.3 million tonnes of carnallitite, at a carnallite grade of 65.7% of ore and a KCl grade of 17.6% of ore, concluding with probable reserves of 7.1 million tonnes of KCl. Please refer to the June, 2009 Updated Reserve and Resource Estimate for MagMinerals Mengo Permit Area, Kouilou Region, Republic of Congo, available in the Reports and Articles section of our Resource Library on this site and on www.SEDAR.com.

Some rough numbers:
Proven Resource 300,000,000 (maiden JORC)
Annual Capacity 8,000,000
Life of Mine 37.5 years (remember open in all directions so strong likelyhood of Proven Resource increase - 50yrs? 75 yrs? 100 yrs?)

Sales
8m x $500tn = $4 Billion p/y
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-03-16/uralkali-says-potash-will-surge-as-market-similar-to-record-year.html

Might hold for maiden dividend...