Morning dbd, thanks for your post. Shame about your boy for England on Sunday. Not sure why they had him take the 2nd, but hindsight is a wonderful thing. OK, I'm off to golf in a second, but let me just say this, and I'll expand later if you want.
IMHO there is no way both mines get off the ground independently. An AUS$500 investment right next to each other? Nah! One may get the funding, or most likely bought out, and the other will go in a fire sale to the winning party. That way you just build a bit bigger plant and have a 60 year mining life. I had originally thought AVL would lead the race, and spoke with a close friend to some individuals right in the middle of this space who were very interested. But then the capital raise's started, completely contradicting what I was telling them about certain points on the direction of the company, so I decided to only continue socializing with those individuals when I'm on that side of the world, rather than trying to convince them of anything, as I was obviously getting told incorrect information when asking. They still might circle one day, but I highly doubt it would be a friendly negotiation. AVL is worth over $100 million today, simply because there are more than 4 billion shares on the register. Doubt you convince a purchaser to pay that figure in late 2023, when the reserves from that last capital raise are drying out, and it's becoming very obvious funding may very well not happen.
Will there be peaks and troughs between now and then?? Absolutely, as there will be for TMT. They're going to ride any wave AVL goes on, and with such a good hold on their register, and after their solid last capital raise with real players, someone may well target them and look at AVL as just a cash bleeding company with an extra source of vanadium for them to process through their plant. The world is a very strange place hahaha. Who knows!!!!
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