Mr Deeds, with your RSL/RSLO prediction you've not factored in...

Mr Deeds, with your RSL/RSLO prediction you've not factored in 'time premium' on the last 3 predictions. You've undervalued the options at the 30/35/40 levels.

For example if someone was to buy at 18c and then pay their 20c strike price they have made an instant profit of 2c - in theory. In practice obviously you can't convert options instantly and then sell a few minutes later so in the intervening period the RSL's could go either way.

Amount of time left before expiry will play a significant role in the estimates too. Along with supply & demand.

My predictions (based on recent trading - NOT necessarily based on fair value) are;

RSL 12.5c RSLO 3.0c
RSL 15.0c RSLO 3.5c
RSL 20.0c RSLO 4.5c
RSL 25.0c RSLO 7.5c
RSL 30.0c RSLO 12.5c
RSL 35.0c RSLO 18.0c
RSL 40.0c RSLO 23.0c
RSL 50.0C RSLO 33.0c

I am working on an assumption that options have a healthy life left when RSL hits the prices below. 12-18mths life.
Once RSL breaches the 20c mark the 'life' becomes less relevant.