ACF (ASX) ACF Always Count on Formwork

Originally posted by Hopeful9: ↑

I have had my eye on this company for a while but didn't invest as I perceived greater returns in companies like YAL (thermal coal).

ACF seems well run: as a side issue having read some of the FY 23 Annual Report there's an absence of 'welcome to country' rubbish. We don't need welcoming to our own nation if we're fifth generation Australians.

Given the huge debt of the Victorian socialist Labor-Greens government (IIRC it has increased by a factor of eight in a decade since the 2010-2014 Victorian Coalition - Liberal-Nationals - one term government lost office) and how it exceeds the net debt of NSW/Queensland/Tasmania combined, will this have an adverse effect on ACF? For instance, the hugely over budget Melbourne Metro (really just a suburban railway tunnel) that isn't including Melbourne Airport rail is almost finished, and the similarly disastrously over budget West Gate Tunnel is slowly grinding to an opening date. ACF spruiks how it was involved in the so-called Melbourne Metro at two new Melbourne CBD stations.

Similarly the Federal Labor government with huge cost overruns on the NDIS and other state governments (except for Western Australia) may be under pressure to reduce infrastructure spending. In NSW, ACF features on its website the much criticised road Rozelle Interchange. I'm not having a go at ACF for its no doubt innovative and effective techniques employed at that major project, but it's another example of a completed project.

In the private sector despite the Feds' aim to construct a huge number of new housing given massive immigration and rental homes shortages, there's insufficient skilled labour. (This may not be an area that ACF is directly involved in, but less supporting infrastructure such as fewer new railways and roads is in ACF's ballpark).

Again at a Federal level we have a mad 'nature positive' plan being promoted by leftie Minister Tanya Plibersek and PM Anthony Albanese that has been sprung on businesses (though is yet to be finished. It is shrouded in secrecy. Fortunately the excellent 'The Australian' has unearthed some detail. Longstanding 80-plus year old business commentator Robert Gottliebsen (based on the Great Ocean Road in Victoria) says this may hobble a huge number of infrastructure projects.

Then we have serial pests such as the Federally funded Environmental Defenders' Office and wacky conservation groups doing their best through so-called lawfare to stymie new coal mines and other projects. This tactic ties these up for years, such as NHC's New Acland 3 coal mine near Toowoomba, Queensland that's fortunately (for the time being) railing production to the Port of Brisbane.

Will these potential impediments operate as a handbrake on ACF going forward? Labor/Greens and the useless virtue signalling Teals (what a waste of space!) have a huge anti-business agenda.

I stress none of this is having a negative go at ACF, as it seems a competent company that continues to innovate while focused on its knitting and not ill-advised distractions. ACF also appears to pay sensible earnings multiples for M&A opportunities.

But they are legitimate public policy questions that might prove challenging to navigate, if that's at all possible.

Expand

Infrastructure spending may reduce in the short term. But eventually more spending will be required to keep up with population growth and urban sprawl.

Industrial services should remain strong for the foreseeable future. We need to get a whole lot of lithium and vanadium out of the ground to supply the electric car industry and large scale power storage.

I agree with your discussion but I think there is plenty of upside in the near future.

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(20min delay)
Last $1.09		Change 0.015(1.40%)		Mkt cap ! $324.0M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
$1.07	$1.10	$1.07	$203.4K	186.9K

ACF Always Count on Formwork, page-62

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