I haven't looked in at HC for a long time. But, some thoughts, etc after speaking with a few people.
And, a possible request for support
a) There's little value left in fonda due - (a) far more generic competition in the anti-coagulant market; and (b) perhaps Mylan ending up with a lot of stock on hand as part of its expensive Arixtra & AG deal. Also reasonable to expect that Reddys see a very vulnerable ACL
b) A deal with VAST may happen soon; presumably no cash but some future royalty rights
c) HyACT Does Work:
But the Phase 3 trial was contaminated by the Russian results. Reasons unknown - could have been wrong patients admitted, control & HyACT drugs mixed up; whatever. Publicly available data clearly indicates that if Russia excluded, HyACT Phase 3 produced better outcomes than 2 most recently FDA treatments.
So, in my view, HyACT is only real value left in ACL It would take someone with circa $30 million to run a new, modified, Phase 3 trial to get through FDA, etc. If I personally had that sort of money (which I don't !), I'd take it on. Apart from colorectal cancer, I suspect the overall platform has valuable applications for other cancers
d) Along with 'mates' I control only 4-5% of shares. I think Orbis still have 20%; but perhaps have forgotten/lost interest by now? If true, then Sandon can presumably win the day.
e) I may be mistaken, but I get no sense/comfort that Sandon have any understanding of the above, as I see things. But, seems like they currently control about 13% directly, and perhaps a further 7 or so % indirectly.
.....
Let's see what comes out over the next week or so. It could be that the current Board will announce some deals re HyACT & VAST
But, I may come back to HC folks with a suggestion/request to try block the Sandon Board nominees, remove the remaining US based Director; & keep the 2 current Aussie directors.
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