i agree, there's only one way to value a stock. present value of future cashflows by next year they will be roughly doubling their production from 7.8m tonnes to say, 13m tonnes
because of the way royalties work due to the qld ownership, if coal is US$130 a tonne gross, it will be roughly AUD$175 net of royalties a tonne. Assume another $90 a tonne of costs, gives you $85 a tonne in FCF, or ~1.1bn FCF before tax. say 700m post tax. They have 800m shares, and reducing, so close to $1 per share free cashflow
thats around 20% on current share price, i am pretty happy with an annual FCF/div close to 20%.
NHC Price at posting:
$4.81 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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