Okay - some fun for a slow friday. 5 scenarios for ACR over the next several years. These are presented below. Refer to the graphic for further detail.
Your challenge - if you choose to accept: 1. what scenario is your preference and why? logic here please guys/gals 2. which scenario is the current price closest reflecting 3. and for extra credit - calculate or guess if you prefer what the DCF value AUD$ ps is associated with each scenario (keeping in mind the charts are all in US$) - so please give fx assumptions...
Case A = -5% pa market growth pa 14% peak market share until 2016/2017 - then decline (due to generics) out to 2021 (US market with lagged international peaking 10% lower at 2016/2017)
Case B = 0% market growth pa 14% peak market share until 2016/2017 - then decline (due to generics) out to 2021 (US market with lagged international peaking 10% lower at 2016/2017)
Case c = 5% market growth pa 20% peak market share until 2016/2017 - then decline (due to generics) out to 2021 (US market with lagged international peaking 10% lower at 2016/2017)
Case D = 10% market growth pa 30% market share peak in 2016/2017 and then decline until 2021 (US market with lagged international peaking 10% lower at 2016/2017)
Case E = 5% market growth 5% decline in market share until 2016/2017 and then continued decline until 2021 (US market with lagged international peaking 10% lower at 2016/2017)
ACR Price at posting:
87.0¢ Sentiment: ST Buy Disclosure: Held
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(20min delay)