acr - pick the scenario, page-3

you have to be careful to separate the milestone payments from the underlying royalty stream... Also are you talking USD divs or AUD - as the Eli Lilly figures are USD

Last financial year ACR paid divs of AU$13.4 on a NPAT of c.7m.
To pay AU$8cps on a sustainable basis without any milstones - ACR would need to grow its royalty stream to c.AU$30m pa.
So that's $30m * .65 * .7 = $14m PAT / 166 shares = 84c EPS * .9 payout = 8 cents per share.

I see this as a stretch when you gross this up to the net sales figures reported by Eli lilly. They would need to hit over US$220m in net sales for the FY (note: not Calander)
I think 6 cents per share divs would be assume net sales around AU$190m (US$174m)and would suggest a Q2 result of US40m (about the same as q1). But point out this is very conservative as they are still sitting on sig cash!

Remember: if they hit US$220 in the calendar year to get the US$50 milestone which would sig increase the div $$$$ this would require a run rate of c. US$55m per quarter.