you have to be careful to separate the milestone payments from...

  1. 494 Posts.
    you have to be careful to separate the milestone payments from the underlying royalty stream... Also are you talking USD divs or AUD - as the Eli Lilly figures are USD

    Last financial year ACR paid divs of AU$13.4 on a NPAT of c.7m.
    To pay AU$8cps on a sustainable basis without any milstones - ACR would need to grow its royalty stream to c.AU$30m pa.
    So that's $30m * .65 * .7 = $14m PAT / 166 shares = 84c EPS * .9 payout = 8 cents per share.

    I see this as a stretch when you gross this up to the net sales figures reported by Eli lilly. They would need to hit over US$220m in net sales for the FY (note: not Calander)
    I think 6 cents per share divs would be assume net sales around AU$190m (US$174m)and would suggest a Q2 result of US40m (about the same as q1). But point out this is very conservative as they are still sitting on sig cash!

    Remember: if they hit US$220 in the calendar year to get the US$50 milestone which would sig increase the div $$$$ this would require a run rate of c. US$55m per quarter.


 
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