I didn't include the milestone payments but I did take into account the US vs AU financial years. The Axiron figures are taken from slide 6 of the investor presentation from April 28.
Can we guess the royalty stream?
The ACR half-year accounts from 20 Feb suggest revenue to ACR from Axiron is AUD14.3 Million (42.5M total includes 28.2M milestone)
This ACR half-year period corresponds with the Eli Lilly sales of calendar Q3 and Q4 2013 which is USD40.6M and USD53.9M respectively, a total of USD94.5M. Assuming a constant currency that roughly equates to 15%.
Last quarter's USD sales were USD 39.5M. Using 15% as a rough guide that is AUD 5.925M to ACR. Add that to the half-year revenue and you get approx. 20.3M for the first 9 months. Another flat quarter would get them to about AUD26M for the year, which is shy of your 30 million for an 8c dividend.
ACR Price at posting:
86.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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