Toly, nice to see the calcs. I will still advise to go by the known facts. From the following quote from your post it seems that you are making a very simplified assumption and my calcs show that to be wide off the mark.
Except for Holmium, prices for all the CLD and Duncan components are available in Asian metals website.
Using those prices along with forex conversion for the prices in RMB, breaking down the 480 tons from stage 1 into their components gives a $304 million revenue not $1.328 billion.
For those mathematically minded, using the percentages provided in the Roskill Rare Earths Presentation announced to ASX on 16-11-11 components other than La, Ce, Pr and Nd from CLD works out to be 632.5 tons not 480 tons from a yearly production of 11,000 tons.
If I use 632.5 tons for the calcs it works out to be $401 million revenue.
Ofcourse it is still a large revenue but not the windfall of billions.
"Using an average price of $3,000/Kg may be reasonable given that Terbium is priced @ $2,800/Kg and Europium is priced @ $3,800/Kg. The lack of supply in the future could drive this price even higher.
OK, Gloria indicated that there would be around 480 mt of unseparated SEE's during Phase 1. Some quick math...
480 mt * 1000kg * $3,000/kg = $1.44b of unseparated Heavy (Scarce) REE's…
Of course this figure doesn't account for production cost's so lets assume $15/kg.. production costs'…"
480 mt * 1000kg * $$15 = $7.2m
$1.44b - $7.2m = $1.328b Profit for HREE''s of
$1.328 billion dollars."
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