actually the glass is half full

Just thought I'd post some valuation data to inject a bit of balance for those disappointed by what was announced:

At production of just under 8000 bopd, with approx. 3500 due to Carnarvon (40% holding) and assuming a modest US$100 a barrel and an exchange rate around A$.95 cents the company is taking approx. A$380,000 per day or A$138m per year.

Of course we all know the tax regime and the staggered royalty scheme eat into that total, but that's handy money in anyone's terms. And the company sounds pretty confident of boosting production significantly within 3 - 4 months with the step-out wells from the heaviest producing zones, let alone the more speculative drills (a total of 18 - 20 are expected this year) that will be ongoing.

I particularly liked this paragraph from the announcement:

'With the initiation of drilling from the 4 well NSE-A pad, production is anticipated to increase significantly over the coming two to three month period. An additional three multi-well pads are under construction over the northern undeveloped portion of the NSE central fault compartment. In addition, land purchase is underway for a number of drilling locations in the NSE north fault compartment (a large prospective resource region) and the NSE central fault compartment (a large 3P reserve region), with the objective of increasing the Company's proved and probable reserves.'

All in all, while the SP may well cop a bollocksing for a day or two, I wouldn't be surprised to see the shrewd money use the downturn - if it eventuates - to take a stake. To me, this is a glass that's better than half full...

DYOR

Gupper